Open Nationals Preview

So, I'm going to go ahead and give away my Claremont Club Nationals Office Pool (CCNOP) picks, but I don't think that'll hurt my chances as I've never won the thing (Prude, do I still have to email you these picks? If I do, I might just email you this post). Anyway, on to a pool by pool breakdown (kind of like what was done on other blogs).

Pool A:
Jam: You all know what I think of this team by now. Anyway, they should win this pool handily. The other teams here like to huck, and that plays into Jam's strengths on D seeing as their shortest player is 5'10''. Also, I don't see this veteran team faltering early. Watch out for a lot of D's from Bogle and a lot of hucks from a loose team on Thursday.

GOAT: The big question here is will they be able to peek twice in one season. So far the evidence suggests yes. I don't know too much about these guys, but it seems like they play hard D and huck a lot. Well, that's a fine game plan for getting to the show, but without discipline you won't make it far in such a deep nationals. Whether or not they make the power pools, I see this team loosing in pre-quarters. If the wind is calm in Sarasota their game against ring on Thursday should be immensely entertaining.

Ring: They've had some strong results this year, and are always a threat to get hot and go as far as semis. Personally, I don't see that for them this year, but I do think their nationals experience will serve them well. This team seems similar to GOAT, just with more history and slightly crazier D. More hucks will be thrown in pool A than in any other pool.

The Van Buren Boys: Great name. Well, the first time since '04 a non SoCal team will be last at nationals, there's a 50% chance it'll be these guys

Thursday records: Jam 3-0, GOAT 1-2, Ring 2-1, VBB 0-3

Pool B:
Sockeye: I can't really see these guys slipping early, and I don't think they're ripe for an upset either of the first two days. Already having a loss to Boston this season should motivate them enough to really get up for the last game of the day, and I think it's apparent that Rhino doesn't match up well with the Fish. After an ugly semi with Furious and NW regionals expect the offense to be polished and less urgent. As far as their starts go, I think the secret is out about how good C-K is, but I think people are still over looking MC, the dude is uncoverable and has great puts, he's also deceptively 6'2'' with ups, no wonder he's always open under. Last bit, Nord and Chase haven't been spectacular thus far this year, but I think they'll bring it for the nationals highlight real.

Boston Ultimate: They got a lot younger, meaning they're more athletic, but slightly less disciplined. Interestingly, I think that taking more risks will help these guys. Still, what will hurt them is looking a little past Rhino and gunning for another upset of Sockeye. I think Boston has more depth than Rhino, but the portland guys are real good at the top, and they can get off to great starts. In the end, Boston vs. Rhino should be a great game to watch. When playing against Boston, watch out for Steve putting huge lefty flicks to Gibson (hopefully), and in reality, watch for lots of Ds from Seigs.

Rhino: Lots of confidence and skill, not much discipline, lots of crazy. I think all that adds up to Rhino taking teams by surprise early, along with the ability to implode. Personally, I don't see them imploding on Thursday. In fact, I think they'll go big early against Boston, then the east coasters will get back in it late, but it won't be enough. The biggest thing when playing Rhino is that they always want to move the disc, so you can never let up. Also a big help, they're captained by a man with two last names, just check #44 on the score reporter.

Pike: Lots of good nationals experience, but not that much experience being to go to guy at nationals. It'll be a tough first two days for Pike. Chance of being last at nationals, 40%.

Thursday records: Sockeye 3-0, Boston 1-2, Rhino 2-1, Pike 0-3

Pool C:
Johnny Bravo: Sure there are some injuries, but there is still some Parker, Richter, and Beau. Also, they won't be happy with how they played at regionals, and this will lead to them crushing early at nationals. Remember when UCSB beet Mamabird at regionals? Yeah, the guys from Boulder went on to win it all that year. Look for more of that crushing sort of play this year. Also, they were in the finals of Labor Day without Richter, who will be in full effect this year, kind of like in last years semis.

Condors: Lots of talent and desire in these guys, but there is also the potential for an emotional let down leading up to and after a big game. They have some great wins this year, but not too many great tournament finishes. Look for them to get up for the JBVO game, but also look too much past the boys form Texas. The youth movement in SB is a good thing for the program, but I think it's fruits won't show up for another couple of years. Look for them to build on this year in years to come, and also look out for them stealing college players from LA, not just club guys.

Doublewide: Tuff++. Lots os speed and discipline. Also, they do a good job throwing away passes instead of bombs. I don't know too much else about these guys except that they're great off the field, and two current Claremont guys would love to play with this team some day. Still, making Semis at labor day and beating a staked Chain team at regionals shows there not to be looked past.

Machine: They've always had the team speed, and gaining Cash from Revolver will help with the experience. Still, putting taller guys on their short handlers hurts them. Still, they did make last year's pre-q's, and they don't give up the disc easy. In the wind, these guys are real ruff (funny they're from the windy city, ehh?).

Thursday records: Bravo 3-0, Condors 1-2, Double Wide 1-2, Machine 1-2. Bravo and Condors move up, Machine and Doublewide move down.

Pool D:
Furious: They bring it in the fall every year. Last year they were able to take the NW region without Shank and regionals, but they had more star power then. Still, this year they made the finals of NW regionals without Mike Grant, even though they don't have Al Bob andymore. Look for Oscar to step up big time this year and expect a typical thursday performance from FG.

Sub Zero: They're tall, young and fast. They'll play harder D than any other team, and they'll take their shots on the D line. The big problem is the O. If their O can get off the field quickly Sub Zero has a great chance (I almost wrote "If they can keep the D on the field" but that's the most obvious shit ever). Anyway, the D will do well, but the O is the question mark.

Truck Stop: It's sweet they managed to get a three seed in a pool. It sucks balls that Chain is the 4 seed in their pool. They're young and a sweet group of dudes. Still, I don't think they have great chances in this pool. Unfortunately, it'll be bottom brackets again for TSGH.

Chain: They're loaded with talent, and they play great D, the problem is the HnH. It went well last year, but they loosed to a more disciplined team at regionals. Maybe adding Zip will help, but I think adding Asa next year will help more. Like SZ, if their O can get off the field quickly, they're in good shape. Wind will help them because it will cause them to have more patience.

Thursday records: Furious 3-0, SZ 1-2, Truck Stop 0-3, Chain 2-1

Now for the power pools, this is where I differentiate myself from those other slacker blog. I promise, this will be shorter.

Land of awesome pools:
Pool E: Jam 3-0, Bravo 2-1, Condors 1-2, Ring 0-3

Pool F: Sockeye 3-0, Furious 2-1, Chain 1-2, Rhino 0-3
The only note here, this is really hard to pick.

Douche-land pools:
Pool G: GOAT 2-1, Doublewide 3-0, Machine 1-2, The VBB 0-3

Pool H: Boston 2-1, SZ 3-0, Truck Stop 1-2, Pike 0-3
Note: Pool H is stronger than pool G, even if you switch Boston for Rhino, or SZ for Chain.

Pre Quarters: Rhino over Doublewide and SZ over Ring

Which gives us Jam vs Rhino, Furious vs Condors, Sockeye vs SZ, and Bravo vs. Chain in the quarters.

Okay, Semis: Jam vs Furious, Sockeye vs Bravo (Note, I think Chain is the other top 5 team)

Finals: Jam vs. Sockeye

Winner, and you all saw this coming, Jam.

Still, here's the most important part: Condors beat Rhino for the strength bid, fuck.

Notes on my picks: I'm a homer, I like the NW teams most of the time and I think Rhino is better than GOAT and Ring. Having three of the top 8 teams in pool D makes the power pools kind of wacky. Also, I really wanted to not have Furious in the Semis, but their road seems perfect.

That's all I got for now. Peace.