Tuesday, October 30, 2007

NBA Western Conference Preview

Okay, so I said I wanted to white about basketball at the beginning of this whole blog ordeal, and with the season starting tonight, I figured it's about time. Since I've always lived out west, and I've always intended on doing so (I only applied to schools in Washington, Oregon, and California), I figured writing about the western conference would be appropriate. (Last year I could have made some jokes about the JV-ness of the eastern conference, but they're starting to be legit, even if the 3 or 4 best teams are in the west, which will be true this year)

Anyway, on to the preview.

This year there are five clear tears of teams in the west. Now, I'm not as clever as The Sports Guy, so I won't have really clever names for the devisions, but I still think tears is the best way to think of the west.

The Favorites:
1. Phoenix
2. San Antonio

San Antonio and Phoenix are more consistent, playoff tested, and confident than all the other teams in the NBA. Now, I think Phoenix would have won it all last year if not for the suspensions, and Tim Donaghy (the NBA has done well to keep that he reffed game three quiet). With all that said, the Spurs are the defending chaps, and have won 4 of 9. For all intents and purposes, who wins in a series of these two teams is a coin flip, so, because the Spurs never win back to back titles, I'm going with the Suns. Also, I love the addition of Grant Hill in Phoenix. He'll take some ball handling pressure off of Nash (something that hasn't been done since Joe Johnson left), and fill the role that the Suns were hoping Penny would a few years back. This will lead to a more rested Nash for the playoffs, and a title for the Suns.

The Playoff Shoo-ins
3. Houston

Houston may never win a playoff series, but I think as long as Yao and Tmac are healthy the Rockets are the third best team in the NBA. By switching coaches from Jeff Van Gundy to Rick Adelman the Rockets will get a lot better offensivly, and it's not like they're going to forget how to play D (defense is an easier thing to have players motivate than offense).

4. Dallas

Last year's regular season champs haven't changed much, I just think they're not that great through a series. I think they're nice, I just don't see them making the conference finals (unless they get the one seed, then they have a chance, but I still think they'd loose to the 4 seed).

5. Utah

I don't think Jerry Sloan will let these guys get too hyped about last years success. In fact, I'll be surprised if the Jazz don't work even harder this year. As much of a distraction as AK47 might prove to be (the only way he'll be less of one if his wife ups the per year allowance to like 20), Deron williams will make up for it with an all star season. Also, Calos Boozer is a monster, and will average 25 and 11.

6. Denver

Where's the D? Sure AI and Mellow are nice, but neither can play real D (AI plays fantasy basketball D getting you steals even though he can't stop anyone). They'll score a lot, but they can't beat anyone in the playoffs.

The Race for 8th (well, 7th also)
7. Golden State

I'm a homer, but I also think the Wariors are improved over last year's addition. Loosing J-Rich will hurt, but having the Indiana guys all season will help more. Also, I like the additions from the draft, and I think the young guys improved well. Basically, I don't think there's any way that Baron will let these guys miss the playoffs. Last note, the Pistons have officially handed over the title of hardest team in the NBA to Golden State.

8. New Orleans

Chris Paul is a baller. Now, if these guys stay healthy they should make a real strong push for the playoffs. Also, look for Peja to step up.

9. LA Lakers

There out. Out of the playoffs, and out of sorts. Kobe will get you to #9 alone, but not much further. Kobe has no help, and there's to much disfunction in Laker land. I think this is the last year the Lakers will be in the playoff hunt, and that they'll go into rebuilding mode after this year.

Now, being a long standing Warriors fan, I have developed the ability to easily talk myself into a team's prospects. So, I might have an overly optimistic about cellar dwellers. Still, I think the NBA is in a good place talent wise and that makes a lot of teams dangerous to break through.

One piece away:
10. Memphis
11. LA Clippers

Both of these teams were recently in the playoffs, and have great big men. The Clippers are out for this year because of injury, but they'll be back in a big way if they get a high draft pick. I think Memphis will be alright this year, but any team counting on Mike Miller can't be that great. I think the Grizz are one good perimeter player away from being in the playoff hunt. Also, Pau is real underrated.

Headed in the Right Direction
12. Portland
13. Seattle

Both of these franchises are headed in the right direction personnel wise, unfortunately the Sonics are also headed to the Mid West. Still, getting a nice draft pick this year, along with being well under the cap makes both of these franchises futures bright. Still, I worry about the durability of the Blazers players.

No end in sight:
14. Minnesota
15. Sacramento

Minnesota is counting on the worst GM in the league to rebuild, and the Kings are right where the Warriors were seven years ago (honestly, it looks really similar). I feel sorry for the fans of both of these teams.


Okay, that was my first attempt at writing about basketball, it was fun, expect some more. Also, coming soon, Road Trip Recap.

Peace.

3 comments:

Jay Schulkin said...

Pretty good, but I have a couple beefs.
1. Phoenix isn't any more playoff tested than the Mavs are. True, Dallas lost in the first round last year, but the year before they almost won the championship.
2. You're riding a wave of ESPN hype on Houston. Did they do anything significant besides picking up a wily backup power forward? They still don't have a legit point guard, which means they aren't gonna be better than Big D this year.
Also, the Clips are gonna TERRIBLE unless you have Maggette in fantasy (holla (not in the brains league though)). When a should-be 6th man gunner is your only decent player, you're in trouble.

Joaq said...

So, to clarify, I put the non playoff contending teams in groups based on the state of the franchise, not necesarily where they stack up at the end of the season. I think the Clips are one piece away from being good in 08'-09'. I've pretty much given up on all of those teams for this season.

As far as Huston goes, I thin they're better than Big D fir the playoffs. At this point, that Dallas team is like the Cubs in their playoff mindset (although Huston isn't much better, I just think changing the coach can help change the players attitude).

DLK said...

jugster...Rockets picked up Mike James and Steve Francis. Say what you will about the Francis of the past few years..but James has been legit.
Joaqster...dallas has to be in your top teams for winning. why? well (and i will say now i am a huge mavs fan since 1999) they have a terrible matchup with the warriors. i told my best friend before the series started that i wouldn't be suprised if the mavs lost to GS but if they had won i predicted they would win the championship. (we'll never know), but the real reason they have to be up there is because if they win the West and take the 1 seed with GS taking the 7, NO WAY they lose to the 8th seed and then the 4 seed in Utah/Houston.
2 years ago they were unstoppable and were cheated..1 year ago they set one of the best records in history and got knocked off by the hottest team at that point in the season.
Let's talk about adding a 'team surging with energy just before the playoffs who will be able to pull an upset'. My vote? The Hornets..but not against the Mavs.

Love,
DLK